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Thoughts on topics that matter to you and your clients.

What does a potential China growth scare portend?

China's GDP growth slowed to 6.4% in the fourth quarter of 2018, providing evidence of the US-China trade war's economic toll. Vanguard's Qian Wang looks at the trade talks and whether Chinese stimulus measures will foster economic stability.

Interest rate uncertainty and bond portfolios

Viktor Nossek explains how investors are having to think differently about the risks in fixed income as we enter the late stage of the economic cycle.

To shorten or not to shorten (duration)

What is the impact of shortening duration? In this short paper, Kunal Mehta explores whether short duration offers lower volatility.

How to increase the odds of owning the few stocks that drive returns

The less diversified a portfolio is, the less likely it is to hold the small percentage of stocks that account for most of the market's long-term return. Our analysis yields two measures that a manager must meet to outperform the market: the 'excess return hurdle' and the 'success rate.'

Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2019: Down but not out

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